Just looking over some stats on the IAAF site for all time 5000m indoor and outdoor performances and comparing times for some of the guys from indoor to outdoor in the same season.
There are not too many examples to take from since a lot of the runners high on the list didn't run a 5000m indoor and outdoor. But here's what I came up with:
In '04 Bekele ran 12:49 indoors(WR) on Feb. 2 and went on to run 12:37 outdoors(also WR) on May 5. A 12 sec.+-
In '97 Haile ran 12:59 indoor on Feb. 2 and 12:41 outdoor on Aug. 13. 18 sec. faster.
In '99 Haile ran 12:50 indoor on Feb. 14 and then "only" 12:49 outdoor on Aug. 11. just 1 sec. faster.
In '98 Komen ran 12:51 indoor on Feb. 19 and then ran a slower 12:54 outdoor on Aug. 28.
So the big question is where will Lagat go with his 13:11 and Rupp with his 13:14? A minus 18 would put Lagat 12:53 and Ruppy 12:56. But that's about the most optimistic scenario from what history has shown us.
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